MARKET ANALYSIS

FOWLER INNOVATIONS RETAINED THE FIRM KIMLEY-HORN TO PERFORM A MAKET ANALYSIS AND DEVELOP SITE VISIONS. THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE STUDY . THE FULL STUDY IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST.

Economic Drivers

Education

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The University of South Florida Tampa campus has 14 colleges offering 80 undergraduate majors and +130 graduate and doctoral-level programs. There are more than 43,500 enrolled students, 56% of which are full-time, and approximately 14,000 faculty and staff. Student enrollment has been trending upward, while faculty and staff employment has declined in recent years. USF is an important driver of real estate demand in the area surrounding the Logan Property, primarily for housing, retail, and hospitality uses.

Healthcare

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AdventHealth Hospital, Moffitt Cancer Center, and the VA Hospital represent major employers in the area, providing a variety of health-related services to the region. Together these facilities, and the medical office space that is located nearby, represent a major concentration of healthcare and support jobs in Tampa. This concentration drives demand for specialty office space, as well as a wide variety of retail goods to serve local employees and visitors.

Tourism

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 Anchored by Busch Gardens Tampa, tourism and recreation represent a major economic anchor in the trade area. Busch Gardens is the 11th most visited theme park in the United States. Visitors to the facility represent both day-trips for those living in the region and overnight stays, which drive demand for retail goods and hotels. Busch Gardens averages 4.2 million annual visitors; attendance has remained relatively stable in recent years.

Market Results

Demographic Considerations

  • Households in the Trade Area increased by 6.4% since 2010, exceeding 40,000 total
  • More than 70% of households in the Trade Area rent; inverse of the Tampa Bay Region.
  • Renter-occupied housing units increased 440 basis points since 2010, consistent with national trends following the Recession
  • Reflects increase in off - campus student multifamily development by USF

MULTI-FAMILY

  • Limited construction in market-rate apartments since 2000 (averaging only 115 annually)
  • Demand has outpaced supply in long- and short- term
  • Vacancy rates have declined sharply since the Recession 
  • Consistently ~3 -5% in the last four
  • Lower than 7% industry - standard representing a ‘healthy’ market 
  • Rents have increased 16.6% since 2013

HOSPITALITY


  • More than 2,000 rooms in the USF/Busch Gardens Submarket (closely aligns with competitive trade area)
  • More than 40% of the inventory is classified as upper midscale (Comfort Inn, Hampton Inn, Holiday Inn Express 
  • Upper midscale properties also represent the Submarket’s highest capture of the County-wide total at 16.8%
  • Occupancy rates have increased nearly 100 basis points, from 60.4% in 2012 to 70.3% in 2017
  • Average daily rate (rental income per occupied room) in the Submarket has increased 22.1%
  • More notable rate growth in the last four years as tourism rebounded from the Great Recession

Economic Considerations

  • Approximately 70,000 jobs in the Trade Area
  • Comparatively modest growth over five-year period
  • High captures of Education jobs (USF) and Healthcare (AdventHealth, Moffitt Cancer Center, VA Hospital)
  • Sectors with the strongest absolute five-year growth are Retail Trade, Education, and Accommodation & Food


Commuting Tends

  • Major employment anchors in the Trade Area result a net-inflow of commuters 


  • More than 90% of the primary jobs in the Trade Area are held by people living elsewhere


  • Only 14.2% of the Trade Area’s residents also work there

Job Growth

  • Approximately 70,000 jobs in the Trade Area
  • Comparatively modest growth over five-year period
  • High captures of Education jobs (USF) and Healthcare (AdventHealth, Moffitt Cancer Center, VA Hospital)
  • Sectors with the strongest absolute five-year growth are Retail Trade, Education, and Accommodation & Food